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Impact Efficiency Report - 2026-06-16 #39496

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Description

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Executive Summary

Analysis window: 2025-12-18 → 2026-06-16 (180 days). Zero PR outcomes — all ~310 workflow-created PRs in the sample lack Closes #N links. Among 50 sampled safe-output report issues, 46 closed outcomes delivered 2,355 value units at 3,699 AIC (partial data; 70% of runs missing AIC). Observability (OTLP Validation) is the highest-efficiency category at 3.75 value-units/AIC. Workflow-optimization (Ambient Context Optimizer) consumed the most AIC (2,625 AIC, 71% of total) with the lowest return (0.32 value-units/AIC), driven by three anomalously expensive runs that have since been resolved.


Summary

Metric PRs Safe-output Issues Combined
Analyzed (linked issue / in scope) 0 50 50
PRs excluded — no linked closing issue 310+ 310+
Skipped (open / pending) 4 4
Mapped to objectives 0 41 41
Unmapped 0 5 5
Accepted outcome count 0 46 46
Total outcome value 0 2,355 2,355
AI Credits (partial) 0 AIC 3,699 AIC 3,699 AIC
Impact Efficiency 0.637 0.637 value-units/AIC ⚠️ partial

⚠️ 32 of 46 closed runs had no AIC in footers. Impact Efficiency is a lower-bound estimate (true IE is lower).


What We Worked On

🔭 observability — value 70/outcome — Best IE

  • 19 accepted | 1,330 total value | 354.7 AIC | IE = 3.750
  • #37755, #37066, #36850 (OTLP Validation & Portfolio Yield reports)

⚙️ workflow-optimization — value 50/outcome — Most AIC

  • 17 accepted | 850 total value | 2,624.5 AIC | IE = 0.324
  • #39279, #39142, #38926 (Ambient Context Optimizer)
  • ⚠️ Three runs in 2026-06-05–07 consumed 723–937 AIC each (vs. ~20 AIC steady-state). Cost since resolved.

🤖 automation — value 35/outcome

  • 5 accepted | 175 total value | 283.0 AIC | IE = 0.618
  • #37700, #37502, #37089 (PR Triage, Health Dashboard, aw-compat)

Top 15 outcomes by outcome value

Outcome Type Objective Obj Value Outcome Value
#37755 OTLP Validation Run 27118543361 Safe-output observability 70 70
#37066 OTLP Validation Run 26997807167 Safe-output observability 70 70
#36850 OTLP Validation run 26863723 Safe-output observability 70 70
#36580 OTLP Validation Run 26866372350 Safe-output observability 70 70
#36408 OTLP Validation run 26737661601 Safe-output observability 70 70
#36188 OTLP Validation Run 26737661601 Safe-output observability 70 70
#35641 OTLP Validation run 26620247189 Safe-output observability 70 70
#35402 OTLP Validation run 26556845789 Safe-output observability 70 70
#35136 OTLP Validation run 26493118 Safe-output observability 70 70
#35001 Portfolio Yield Report 2026-05-26 Safe-output observability 70 70
#34877 OTLP Validation run 26434258 Safe-output observability 70 70
#33943 OTLP Validation run 26270337 Safe-output observability 70 70
#33849 Portfolio Yield Report 2026-05-21 Safe-output observability 70 70
#33771 Portfolio Yield Report 2026-05-21b Safe-output observability 70 70
#33737 Portfolio Yield Report 2026-05-21c Safe-output observability 70 70

Unmapped outcomes

Outcome Type Reason
#39218 Daily Status Report — June 14 Safe-output Labels daily-status, report not in mapping
#37991 Objective Impact Report 2026-06-09 Safe-output Labels report, outcomes not in mapping
#37911 Objective Impact Report 2026-06-08 Safe-output Labels report, outcomes not in mapping
#37075 Workflow Health Manager Safe-output Labels workflow-health, cookie not in mapping
#37074 Workflow Health Dashboard 2026-06-05 Safe-output Labels workflow-health, cookie not in mapping

Interpretation

Accepted outcome count (46) signals a productive system across three mapped objective categories. However it misses the entire PR bucket (zero qualifying PRs) and covers only ~50 of potentially hundreds of safe-output issues.

Impact Efficiency (0.637 value-units/AIC) is more informative: it correctly identifies that observability workflows deliver 11× better return per AIC than workflow-optimization. The metric is unreliable at full fidelity because 70% of runs lack AIC data, but it unambiguously flags the Ambient Context Optimizer cost spikes as the dominant AIC sink.

Highest value per AIC: observability (OTLP Validation) at 3.750 — low cost, high signal value.
Most AIC, weakest return: workflow-optimization at 0.324 — historical spikes dominate the denominator.


Data quality

PR closing-issue links: Critical gap. 310+ workflow-created PRs sampled; zero had Closes #N body keywords. All PR outcomes excluded. Adding issue-closing links to Copilot PR templates would unlock this outcome bucket.

Safe-output label mapping: 5 of 50 issues (10%) unmapped. daily-status, workflow-health, outcomes, cookie labels absent from .github/objective-mapping.json.

AI Credits: Live fallback (no precomputed gh aw logs --json data found). AIC sourced from issue-footer text. 32 of 46 runs (70%) missing AIC → denominator 3,699 AIC is a lower bound; true Impact Efficiency is lower than 0.637.

Analysis window: 2025-12-18 → 2026-06-16 · Sample: 50 report-labelled issues + 400 workflow PRs
AIC source: issue-footer live retrieval (fallback; deterministic precomputed data unavailable)
Generated by 📊 Impact Efficiency Report run #5 · 2026-06-16

Generated by 📊 Impact Efficiency Report · 1.1K AIC · ⌖ 26.4 AIC · ⊞ 29.5K ·

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