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OpenAI-family natural-error arm (Luna/Terra/Sol, N=40 each) - #13

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Jul 12, 2026
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OpenAI-family natural-error arm (Luna/Terra/Sol, N=40 each)#13
Q00 merged 1 commit into
Q00:feat/governed-run-studiesfrom
sergiobuilds:add/openai-tier-study-openai

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Sergio's cross-vendor arm for the Track 1 paper ("When Models Say They Counted"), to merge with the qwen GPU arm.

What: 120 real-recorded producer-episodes harvested via Codex CLI (OAuth, no API key) on the verbatim tool-less counting task, blind to ground truth. 3 models × (hard-count-f + hard-count-g) × N=20.

Harvester: examples/governed-run/tools/openai_harvest.py — a local_harvest.py sibling; only the generation backend swaps ollama → codex exec -m. Task text, blinding, parser, and episode schema are identical. Reasoning=high (matched to the qwen GPU think-on arm; recorded per episode in generationParams).

Results (recomputation ground truth f=273, g=754):

model error rate Wilson 95% f g
terra (gpt-5.6-terra) 0/40 = .000 [0,.088] 0/20 0/20
sol (gpt-5.6-sol) 0/40 = .000 [0,.088] 0/20 0/20
luna (gpt-5.6-luna) 19/40 = .475 [.329,.625] 7/20 12/20
  • All luna errors are schema-valid near-misses (f 274; g 751–756) → reproduces C2 (format-blind) cross-vendor.
  • Recomputation caught 19/19 errors with 0 false rejections on 101 correct claims → reproduces C3 hierarchy cross-vendor.
  • 0 parse-failures across 120. Combined capability curve: terra .00 · sol .00 · opus .15 · sonnet .31 · luna .475 · haiku .54 · qwen 1.00.

Honesty: real-recorded, blind (truth never in prompt), verbatim (luna errors uncorrected), OAuth-only. sol hit a Codex usage limit mid-run (30 backend errors recorded honestly, not fabricated) and was resumed to completion.

Note: fixtures only; natural_study.py model constants / pinning tests are left for the merge so both arms land together.

…N=40 each)

Cross-vendor extension via Codex CLI (OAuth, no API key). 120 real-recorded
producer-episodes on the verbatim tool-less counting task, blind to truth,
0 parse-failures. Reasoning=high matched to the qwen GPU think-on arm.

Results (recomputation ground truth f=273 g=754):
- terra 0/40, sol 0/40, luna 19/40 (=.475); all luna errors schema-valid
  near-misses (f 274; g 751-756).
- recomputation caught 19/19 errors, 0 false rejections on 101 correct claims.

Adds examples/governed-run/tools/openai_harvest.py (local_harvest sibling;
only the generation backend swaps ollama -> codex exec -m; task/blinding/parser/
schema identical) and episodes/study-openai/*.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Q00 added a commit that referenced this pull request Jul 12, 2026
Cross-vendor arm via Codex CLI (drift-guarded same task): sol 0/40,
terra 0/40, luna 19/40 all near-miss (|err| median 1.0); 19/19 caught,
0 false rejections on 101 correct claims; corpus catch 160/160. e22.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@Q00
Q00 merged commit 2ab7c8d into Q00:feat/governed-run-studies Jul 12, 2026
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2 participants